SEREC Identifies Effects Of War Between US, Iran to Nigeria Economy

As tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, analysts at the Sea Empowerment and Research Center (SEREC) have warned that any disruption will affect Nigeria energy markets, shipping lanes, and other socio economic activities in the country

A communique issued by sea empowerment and Research Centre, SEREC says the ongoing war between the United States and Iran will pose serious economic risks to Nigeria energy markets and maritime trade systems.

According to the communique, the world’s attention has turned to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which nearly one-fifth of global crude oil passes daily.

The analysts explained that oil prices could surge between $110 and $140 per barrel, global freight rates may climb 15–40%, and war-risk insurance premiums could jump by as much as 400%, saying that for many developing nations, the fallout would be higher inflation, weaker currencies, and the growing risk of stagflation.

Relating it with Nigeria economy, SEREC said the country would finds itself at a crossroad On one hand of higher oil prices which could bring in additional $18–22 billion annually, lifting GDP growth by more than one percentage point while On the other, inflation could rise by 3–5% as food, transport, and logistics costs spiral.

The analysts warned that the gains could quickly be erased by instability.

“Amid this uncertainty, the Dangote Refinery has emerged as a potential game-changer. For years, Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel left it exposed to global shipping and insurance shocks. With the refinery now operational, the country could cut import dependence, ease pressure on the naira, and even export refined products across West and Central Africa”

“The refinery is more than a factory — it’s a shield against external turbulence,” SEREC noted in its communiqué.

The ripple effects extend across Africa. Import-dependent economies face rising fuel and food prices, longer shipping routes, and heightened maritime security threats. Yet Nigeria’s new refining capacity positions it to become a regional hub, strengthening trade under the African Continental Free

SEREC therefore recommended channeled of oil windfalls into infrastructure and stabilization, not recurrent spending; secure crude supply for local refineries; tighten maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea; build strategic fuel reserves; and deepen regional trade ties to reduce reliance on volatile global shipping lanes.

It stressed that the US–Iran standoff was more than a geopolitical clash , saying It is a structural stress test for global trade and

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SEREC urged Nigeria to embrace disciplined fiscal management, refining optimization, trade diversification, and maritime competitiveness.